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The Risk Report
Time
|February 23, 2026
THE MIDDLE EAST HAS LATELY seen a surge of violence and instability. Israel's war with Hamas expanded to include Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels. An insurrection ousted Syria's strongman and replaced him with a shaky Islamist coalition. Israel and the U.S. directly struck Iran, which in recent weeks has faced an intense wave of protests within its borders. The regime has responded with a ferocity remarkable even by Iran's standards.
But there's another emerging rivalry with important implications, both inside and beyond the greater Middle East. The partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—once grounded in a common mission to transform the Gulf Cooperation Council countries into a global center for innovation and an engine for growth in finance, tourism, and transport—has passed from intensifying competition for foreign investment to indirect conflict over the region’s security order.
This story is from the February 23, 2026 edition of Time.
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