THE BALAKOT MISDIRECTION

How the Modi government drew political mileage out of a military failure

- SUSHANT SINGH and JIGNESH CHAVDA

{ONE}

IF IT WERE A TELEVISION SERIES in Narendra Modi's India, the Indo-Pak crisis of 2019 would consist of four distinct episodes. The first would be the 14 February suicide bombing in Pulwama, which killed 40 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force. The second would be India's retaliatory airstrike on a seminary in Balakot in Pakistan, which, the series might show, killed hundreds of Pakistani terrorists, in their stronghold. The third would be Pakistan's riposte, resulting in an aerial skirmish in Kashmir between the two countries. The drama would include the capture of an Indian fighter pilot by Pakistan, as well as furious back-channel engagements and strategising to secure his safe return. The final episode would be dramatic displays of nationalist fervour, the Pakistani establishment humbled, India victorious.

This kind of representation would not be wildly different from how India's regime-friendly news channels have portrayed the sequence of events. Like all propaganda, they played fast and loose with facts. But what was peculiar back then was just how little basis they had for the chest-thumping. The Indian Air Force, it can now be clearly said six years after the fact, missed its designated targets, lost a fighter jet in an aerial skirmish, shot down its own helicopter, had another near-miss friendly fire incident over Rajasthan and was put on the back foot because of the capture of its fighter pilot. For all intents and purposes, the Balakot episode was a military failure for India. What it did achieve, however, was to give Modi the fillip he needed to comfortably secure a second term.