VOICE IN THE VOID

Asaduddin Owaisi has reshaped AIMIM into a nationally relevant force by combining strategic consolidation, targeted outreach and assertive minority representation at a time when the Congress has pulled back from direct Muslim advocacy

- K. VIJAYA BHASKARA REDDY

When the Mahagathbandhan lost the recent Bihar assembly elections, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, was cited as one of the key reasons for the defeat. The AIMIM contested 25 seats, mainly in the Seemanchal region, won five and was said to have contributed to the loss in 24 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. It was an almost exact replay of 2020, when Owaisi's candidates won five seats in Seemanchal and polled enough votes in adjoining constituencies to influence the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan.

The AIMIM seems to have hurt the prospects of INDIA bloc parties earlier as well, in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. In Maharashtra, the party was blamed for the loss of the Congress-NCP alliance in urban and semi urban Muslim belts in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Its strength in Aurangabad, Malegaon and parts of Mumbai created three-way contests that helped the National Democratic Alliance. Even in 2024, when the AIMIM won only one seat, it fragmented opposition votes in several constituencies once considered safe.

The pattern is clear. The AIMIM does not need many victories to influence outcomes. It only needs to target constituencies where margins are narrow and minority vote consolidation is vital. The BJP often ends up benefiting indirectly, which gives credence to the Congress claim that Owaisi cuts into its votes and is, at times, the BJP's B team. Yet this claim does not hold in Telangana, where the Congress openly courts Owaisi.