RISKY BUSINESS

As President Donald Trump weighs action against Venezuela's leader Nicolás Maduro, experts warn that intervention could trigger a violent, yearslong insurgency

- BY TOM O'CONNOR

AS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP RAMPS UP diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, a steady stream of reports indicate the White House may be planning its own form of “special military operation,” as Moscow refers to the conflict, to quickly topple Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

And while analysts believe that Maduro's position, undermined by accusations of election rigging and complicity in transnational drug trafficking, may prove less resilient in the face of foreign hostilities than that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, observers also suggest that even his swift ousting may be followed by a prolonged period of insurgency and other measures waged by loyalists and armed allies.

Such a campaign could serve as a potentially even greater test to Washington and a nascent partner attempting to establish itself in Caracas.

“The Venezuelan security forces have been training since the [former President Hugo] Chávez years for asymmetrical warfare, knowing that they cannot hope to hold off a conventional attack by the U.S. for more than a few days at best,” Phil Gunson, Caracas-based senior analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group think tank, told Newsweek. “The idea is to deter an intervention with a credible threat of longterm instability, including guerrilla-type attacks and sabotage.”

“How many of them would really engage in this type of thing, and for how long, is hard to assess,” he said. “But it doesn’t take a very large insurgent group to inflict considerable damage, especially if the incoming government is already struggling to stabilize the economy, dominate the bureaucracy and manage the high expectations of its supporters.”

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