Winning by default

As the cost-of-living crisis continues, the government has been reduced to tinkering, with Labour looking set for a comeback.

- Danyl McLauchlan

The government's latest quarterly action plan - yes, these are still a thing - declares its intention to repeal the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration passed by Labour in 2018.

Cost of living is ostensibly this government's gravest concern. Electricity prices have jumped nearly 9% in the past year, and the oil and gas ban is the alleged reason for this. Yet the ban is still on the books. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's modelling warns that even if repealed, it'll take about 10 years for any new gas fields to come online. Perhaps, like the Bene Gesserit in Dune, the coalition's plans are measured in centuries.

We had an energy crisis in 2024 brought on by reduced lake levels and a gas-supply crunch. And this could happen again next year, with the nation watching in horror as prices surge, the economy groans and slows, and more of the manufacturing sector slides into bankruptcy. The Prime Minister is likely to stamp his foot and bleat that this is all the previous government's fault. The coalition would not come close to winning reelection.

Even without that or some equivalent fiasco the current trajectory of our politics points towards a Labour win next year. Christopher Luxon remains a peripheral figure in his own government, eagerly reporting on his action items - many of which are empty signifiers: “take decisions”, “progress legislation” - while indifferently admitting “it's still tough out there” when asked about economic forecasts.

LOSING PATIENCE