I.N.D.I.A. FALLS APART

THE GRAND ALLIANCE OF 27 PARTIES COLLAPSES AS NITISH RETURNS TO THE BJP, MAMATA DECIDES TO GO SOLO IN BENGAL AND OTHER PARTIES REFUSE TO PLAY BALL WITH THE CONGRESS. HOW WILL IT IMPACT THE OUTCOME OF THE GENERAL ELECTION?

- Arkamoy Datta Majumdar, Dhaval S. Kulkarni, Amitabh Srivastava and Amarnath K. Menon

Numbers, not ideology, determine politics in India. That truth was brought home yet again when Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leader Nitish Kumar dumped the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress-for the second time in seven years-and went back to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which he had just abandoned in August 2022, taking oath as Bihar's chief minister for the ninth time on January 28. However, Nitish's latest about-turn hurts more than just the mahagathbandhan in the state, it has ended all hope of any credible opposition against the BJP in the Lok Sabha election coming up just after spring. "By taking one of the key architects of I.N.D.I.A., the BJP has dealt a psychological blow to the Opposition," says election strategistturned-political activist Prashant Kishor.

It will not be for want of trying on Nitish's part, though. He was a key architect of the grand grouping that was the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, even if the effort to arrive at the acronym I.N.D.I.A. was rather contrived. It was at his official Circular Road residence in Patna last June that the bloc of 27 parties had amalgamated with a singular objective-to dethrone the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP from the Centre. The strategy was simple-to consolidate anti-BJP votes by fielding common candidates in as many seats as possible. Nitish even convinced allies who were reluctant to cede space to the Congress that I.N.D.I.A. would be electorally ineffective without the only party that had a presence across the country. He handed them a new narrative too, by making good on his promise of a caste survey in his own state and strengthening the demand for a similar exercise across the nation.