'When the ass begins to bray, surely rain will come that day'

Is a leaping trout more accurate a rain gauge than Michael Fish? John Lewis-Stempel ponders the accuracy of proverbs portraying our wildlife as weather forecasters

- John Lewis-Stempel

AH, the Great British Weather. Discussing it is a national obsession, but then we have so much of it in these exposed, sea surrounded isles. The divination of the weather, before the science of meteorology, was often based on ancient folklore and proverbs concerning the behaviour of the animals in the field or in the wild. Now that we have the Met Office-other weather forecasters are available-all the silly old saws can be dumped in the bin of superstition. Or can they? Animal-science research has come back to bite the sceptics. Some animals do seem to be weather forecasters. If they can predict the weather, should you stop watching the weather person on television and start watching the birds in the sky instead?

'If a cow lies down, rain is coming'

There is an entire herd of proverbs concerning bovines as barometers, with the most common being 'if a cow lies down, rain is coming'. An udderly ridiculous saying? Scientific rumination on this farmers' favourite aphorism by the universities of Arizona and Northwest Missouri in the US suggests it may have a leg to stand on. The reason? A tenuous link between crouching cattle and wet weather: cattle tend to remain upright longer when their bodies overheat, so a standing Shorthorn could arguably mean a scorcher a-coming, whereas a seated Simmental suggests a cool front on the way -as cool weather frequently precedes rain. If cows lie down when the air is cooling, they secure a dry patch of grass that keeps their stomach warm and this aids their milk production. Not so stupid, cows.

There is, therefore, a correlation between rain and the behaviour of cows and (some) truth to the tale. Alas, cows lie down for all sorts of reasons, so a field of reclining Red Poll or lying-down Limousin is not necessarily a signal to don a mac.