RESILIENT AND RISING

India stays resilient amid global turmoil, poised for 6%+ GDP growth in FY26

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Wars seem to be erupting globally, and once they begin, they show little sign of abating, let alone ending. Two prime examples of this are the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February ‘22 and is still ongoing, and the Israeli military action against Hamas terrorists in Gaza since 7th Oct '23.

In early May, another bloody clash occurred on the Asian subcontinent. Old foes India and Pakistan locked horns, though fortunately it was a short-lived, three-day war before a ‘pause’ came into effect. According to India, there is no ceasefire in place, which means India reserves the right to attack and destroy Pakistani-built terrorist infrastructure at a time of its choosing.

Now, a month later in mid-June, another war - perhaps the most dangerous of all - has broken out and, at the time of writing, threatens to engulf the entire Middle East in a deadly conflagration. Israel has struck Iran’s nuclear assets, and so has the United States. In retaliation, Iran has bombarded Israel with ballistic missiles as well as US military bases in Qatar, UAE and Iraq. It has also threatened to drag other countries into the conflict.

The global economy, already weak, has suffered further due to these wards. Supply lines are beginning to choke, and shortages of many products, along with price rises, are increasingly beginning to scar several countries.

The Israel-Iran conflict could spiral uncontrollably into something the world deeply wishes to avoid. Iran could shut down the Gulf of Hormuz, while the Houthis may attack shipping in the Red Sea. In the worst-case scenario, Iran could disrupt oil assets in Saudi, Oman, and the UAE.

There is already fear of oil prices spiking. Some analysts predict prices could reach US $120 per barrel over the next few weeks if the geopolitical situation worsens. If the Houthis succeed in paralyzing the Suez Canal route, the global economy could face a serious downturn.