Grain and oilseed markets under increasing pressure

Production prospects in South America and developments in the Black Sea region continue to shape grain and oilseed markets. Absa AgriBusiness looks at the trends that will affect prices over the coming months.

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The 60-day extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative from 18 March to allow Ukraine to continue to export grain via the Black Sea has eased concerns over global grain supply. As a result, the Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) maize and wheat prices decreased during the month.

In addition, the CBOT’s soya bean price fell on the back of plentiful supplies from Brazil, which recently harvested a record crop.

Based on these developments, production prospects in South America and developments in the Black Sea region look set to continue shaping the global grain and oilseeds markets over the coming months.

MAIZE

The CBOT maize price fell 6,2% month-on-month (m/m) in March (see Graph 1), weighed on by increased export competition from Brazil, as well as positive sentiments about the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Over the past few weeks, the CBOT maize price was further affected by declining demand for maize exports from the US. There could be room for an increase in these exports as China’s demand for maize grows; this will depend, however, on Brazil’s upcoming harvest, as well as maize shipments from Ukraine.