Crisis Spills Over

Iran's aerial strike on Israel could spell new trouble for the Indian economy. A prolonged crisis could not only impact crude oil prices but also require a reworking of the economic projections for FY25 and possibly delay a rate cut

- SURABHI

WITH 7%-PLUS growth for two consecutive years and easing inflationary pressures, the Indian economy seems to be ready to continue on its high growth trajectory in the new fiscal year. But fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—the recent skirmish between Iran and Israel—have raised new concerns for India.

As the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, India is keeping a close watch on the developments in the Middle East. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal recently said the ministry would take any remedial measures required after consultations with stakeholders. The ministries of finance and external affairs, too, are monitoring the developments as oil prices briefly touched $90 per barrel.

“Crude oil gets impacted immediately,” says Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda.