China's Attempted Strategic Squeeze

In the swirling eddies of global trade, few relationships are as complex—and as consequential— as that between India and China. These two Asian behemoths, home to nearly 3 billion people combined, have walked diverging yet strangely parallel economic paths. Today, both countries stand tall in the global economy, yet their trade relationship tilts sharply.

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Specialty fertilisers are now central to modern farming—boosting yields, improving nutrient efficiency, and cutting environmental impact through precision delivery. However, India's heavy reliance on China, which once supplied 80 per cent of its specialty fertiliser needs, has turned into a strategic risk. Over the past few years, China has quietly throttled exports, delaying inspections and stalling shipments. Today, those exports have nearly ceased, not by decree but by design. As supply chains seize up, India's agri-value chain is left scrambling for alternatives.

"The disruption in specialty fertiliser supply couldn't have come at a worse time," said Dr Kaushik Banerjee, Director, ICAR-NRCG. "With the Rabi season approaching, high-value crops like grapes, tomatoes, flowers, and potatoes—already under pressure from climatic stress—face a dual blow. Without timely and targeted nutrition, both yield and quality are at stake. This is not just a supply issue; it's a farm income crisis in the making. The need for swift, strategic policy action is urgent."

In a time of geopolitical hardening, it may be the soil—quiet, enduring, and generous—that reminds these giants of what they can still grow together and perhaps, rewrite the global trade playbook.

Feeding fields, fuelling tensions: Inside the China-India fertiliser equation

India's deepening trade imbalance with China—reaching a record $99.2 billion in FY 2024-25—has laid bare critical vulnerabilities in the country's agri-input ecosystem, especially in the domain of specialty fertilisers. Exports to China fell 14.5 per cent to $14.25 billion, while imports surged 11.5 per cent to $113.45 billion, underscoring India's persistent dependence on Chinese industrial inputs.