Are rougher seas ahead?

There is little debate that the climate is changing, but what that means in practice is far from straightforward, as Simon Keeling explains

- Simon Keeling

'Climate change' is a phrase that can brush past our ears without a thought to its implications. Each day media outlets carry the latest Armageddon-style warnings about the weather of recent years, changes that have occurred and what is about to happen in future decades. There is a lot of 'climate noise' out there, and for sailors (and just about everyone else) it can cause much confusion. In July 2025, the UK Met Office released it's 'State of the Climate 2024' report which headlined that recent years had 'continued to bring warmer, wetter and sunnier weather than the 20th Century'. It claims that extreme weather events have become a regular feature of our climate and are impacting communities. But what of the impacts on the sailing community, what does a changing climate mean for those who take to the water?

As a professional meteorologist with more than four decades of forecasting experience, I am always cautious of various claims made about our climate. This is not to say I am a sceptic, but just that our climate system is so complex, with so many interactions that I treat claims made cautiously. Whilst not doubting the veracity of scientists involved in climate research, I do think our minds need to remain open to new research as it is published.

SENSIBLE SCEPTICISM

When forecasting I am always amazed at Mother Nature's ability to lull us into a false sense of security and the temptation I still have to create a particular forecast only to be confounded as at the last minute the weather ingredients change and hence what was going to be an accurate forecast becomes an appalling one.

As models improve, the times when a forecast is in error is much more noticeable. There is now understandably a greater expectation amongst sailors that a forecast should be correct, and if it isn't then the whole basis of forecasting should suddenly be called into question.