RAINING FOR 60 DAYS

Incessant heavy rains over south India for the past two months indicate a drastic change in the country’s monsoon system and hint at the new climate extremes of a perpetually warming world

- AKSHIT SANGOMLA , K A SHAJI , AISHWARYA SUDHA GOVINDARAJAN, HARIPRASAD RADHAKRISHNAN, M RAGHURAM

A WORST-CASE scenario was averted on December 4 when cyclone Jawad weakened into a deep depression hours before making landfall in Odisha and then shifted track towards north-northeast, weakening along the way. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier warned that Jawad could intensify and be the first cyclone to hit Odisha in December in 130 years. Incessant rainfalls triggered by remnants of the cyclone have caused large-scale damage to the standing paddy and other crops in Odisha and West Bengal. In Odisha, one farmer has reportedly committed suicide over crop loss due to Jawad.

Though Jawad did not intensify into a “severe cyclonic storm”, its movement to the northern Bay of Bengal in December, when cooler sea surface temperature and wind conditions are unfavorable for sustaining cyclones, is as unusual as the weather pattern prevailing over large parts of India since the monsoon season ended. An analysis of IMD data shows that between October 1 and December 7, as many as 17 states received “large excess” rains or 60 per cent more rainfall over the long-term average; and another 10 received “excess” or 20-59 per cent more rains than normal. Overall, the country has received 53 per cent more rainfall than normal. The pattern has been particularly stark in the country’s peninsular region. While the region experienced its wettest November since 1901, October too was among the wettest. Between October 1 and December 1, at least five districts—Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, Pathanamthitta and Kottayam in Kerala, and Dakshina Kannada and Mysuru in Karnataka—reported excess or large excess rains every week (see ‘Hard rains’ p4449). While as many as 10 districts reported excess or large excess rainfall in the first four weeks of October 1-27, their number almost doubled after October 28.