PEACEMAKER TURKEY, BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

Of all the countries in the region, the war in Ukraine has put Turkey in the most difficult geopolitical position.

- JOHN DOBSON

'War is the realm of the unexpected”, said the noted British military theorist, Basel Liddell Hart, years ago. Russia's war on Ukraine is certainly proving him right. Who would have thought only a few months or so ago that the US would be cosying up to Venezuela, a top Putin ally in Latin America? Or that UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson would be rehabilitating Mohammed bin Salman, previously accused of ordering the murder of the dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, with his servile visit to Saudi Arabia? The reason in both cases, of course, is oil. After all, if you want to reduce your dependency on Russia, you need to get your oil from somewhere else. And for this to happen, you have to set aside little things like crimes against humanity. It's called “realpolitik'.

But what do you do if two of your partner-countries go to war with each other? Which do you support? This is the problem currently occupying many minds in Ankara, Turkey's capital. For a long time, Turkey has profited from strong ties with both Moscow and Kyiv. Although

Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Russia's President Putin often compete, they have also partnered in operations in Syria, Libya, and the Southern Caucuses. In 2019, Turkey procured the S-400 ground-to-air missile system from Russia, a decision that poisoned its relations with the US.