Let's Lose Two!

As the World Series champs will tell you, the surest way to the top in today’s MLB is to invest enthusiastically in losing— then capitalize on the returns.

- David Schoenfield

Theo Epstein made building a World Series winner look easy. Make a few smart trades, draft an MVP winner, sign a couple of free agents. Just like that, a 108-year CUBS curse is history. But it wasn’t easy for Epstein, and his job is only getting harder.

Epstein was on the leading edge of analytics in taking the Cubs from perennial punchline to champions. But now that all 30 major league front offices use analytic principles, the information gap is razor thin.

So how to build a contender in 2017? There’s no single model, but a look at how the Cubs, Royals, Astros, Indians and others did it shows five clear principles.

LOSING TO WIN

Sure, “tanking” is a dirty word, but the first strategy Epstein embraced in Chicago in October 2011? Tear it down to build it up. The Cubs lost 101 games in 2012 and won it all four years later. Jeff Luhnow is doing the same in Houston. When he was hired as general manager after the 2011 season, the Astros had a depleted farm system. Luhnow decided to trade veterans for prospects, slash the payroll and amass high draft picks. Houston lost 106-plus games three seasons in a row, the first team to do that since the expansion Mets from 1962 to ’65. Not every trade brought back future major leaguers, but several did. With the first pick in the 2012 draft, the Astros selected Carlos Correa, signing him to a bonus that was $2.4 million less than his slot position. That left money to select and sign Lance Mc- Cullers Jr. to an overslot bonus.