The risks of staying schtum

Chris Hipkins seems to have decided the less said the better in the run-up to election year, leaving a vacuum for ... guess who?

- Danyl McLauchlan

The odds of a Hipkins/Labour Restoration in 2026 improve with each new poll: a radiant dawn breaking over the left-wing political landscape in monthly survey intervals. But as it rises, the challenge of building a stable coalition with Te Pāti Māori gathers like a distant storm; clouds boiling with the thunder and lightning of Tawhirimātea, threatening to blot out the red sun.

How do you govern alongside a party that holds the state itself in contempt? When asked about this, Labour's strategists have jutted their chins, flashed their eyes and defiantly replied, “Who says Te Pāti Māori will even be in Parliament after the next election?”, citing their strategic goal of winning back the Maori seats.

The goal appears completely hopeless in the wake of the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. Peeni Henare, former cabinet minister with a distinguished political whakapapa, backed by Labour's allegedly formidable campaign machine and advised by Willy Jackson, Labour's allegedly brilliant Māori caucus leader, was heavily defeated by Oriini Kaipara, a first-time candidate. Labour's campaign theory was that Māori voters were more interested in material issues – “jobs, home and health” - than Te Pāti Māori's more radical policies: a separate Māori parliament and justice system, the abolition of prisons, the return of all foreshore and seabed, state-owned and conservation land to mana whenua.