Analysts turn wary for rest of 2025

Investment analysts have adopted a cautious stance for the second half of the year, citing growing political instability, slowing economic momentum and global uncertainty.

- NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

They downgraded their Thai GDP growth and Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index projections, prompting a call for greater portfolio diversification while recommending allocations of up to 33% of investments to foreign equities and international funds to mitigate rising risks.

Sombat Narawutthichai, secretary-general of the Investment Analysts Association, shared insights from the association’s third-quarter survey, conducted with analysts and fund managers from 22 financial institutions.

LOWER GROWTH

The survey found analysts downgraded Thailand’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to an average of 1.87%, down from 2.56% in the previous quarter. Forecasts now range between 1.4% and 2.4%.

Key assumptions underpinning these projections include an average crude oil price of $68.65 per barrel, a risk-free rate of 2.22%, and an average equity risk premium of 7.74%.