Trump's $2 Trillion?

"AT LEAST $2 trillion" was Elon Musk's casual preelection response when asked how much a new Donald Trump administration could cut from the federal government.

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As a goal for the new administration, $2 trillion in cuts is both perfectly reasonable and politically impossible. The federal government, now burning $6.8 trillion annually, ran on $4.4 trillion just five years ago-hardly a time of fiscal restraint. But any ambition to curb government spending will have to contend with a political reality that isn't exactly primed for austerity especially under a second Trump administration, where a potent combination of executive power, cronyism, and party infighting looks likely to dominate.

Musk, along with one-time presidential aspirant Vivek Ramaswamy, has been tapped to head a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which will have a mandate to cut, but unclear status and authority.

Meanwhile, Trump returns to the White House with an agenda fueled by old grievances and new entitlement. Throughout his first term, Trump demonstrated an appetite for executive authority, bypassing Congress to impose tariffs, constrain immigration, declare emergencies, and unilaterally reshape policy. Those tendencies are likely to take the lead in a second Trump administration, as he retakes the Oval Office with a fresh list of targets he perceives as enemies within the federal establishment.

While a Muskian vision of downsizing may align, on the surface, with Trump's anti-bureaucratic rhetoric, Trump's second term seems more likely to favor selective budget adjustments aimed at punishing certain agencies rather than achieving broad fiscal discipline.