Denemek ALTIN - Özgür

Recession Next Might Be In 2019

Exhibit

December 2018

It was almost a decade ago in 2008 that we heard everyone around groaning unanimously about the term “Recession”. The great financial crisis went on for almost a year, but it took almost 5 years to eradicate its consequences. The downfall of the world economy affected millions of lives that were left redundant with a feeling of anguish and despair. Indeed, it was a tough time for all.

If we take a look at the pattern that led to the last recession, we would see there was a strong and stable economy from 2000-2007 where the inflation was low, and the rate of unemployment comparatively slowed down, the bank lending and housing projects were at an all-time high, and at a macro level the economy seemed stable but that wasn’t the complete picture, it was just the tip of an iceberg. In 2008, there was an abrupt burst in the housing bubble, loan replay failures and banks were running out of liquidation. But why all of a sudden are we discussing all of it? The answer is actually simple if we go by the prediction of economists, it is expected that the year 2019 (that is almost there) will face the next recession and we need to gear up ourselves to minimise the loss.

WHY COULD THERE BE A POSSIBILITY OF RECESSION HITTING THE ECONOMY IN 2019?

Everything at the moment is going just fine, and in fact, the employment rates are the highest looking at the last 50 years which is massive considering there is a rise in population, and it sounds like a good thing, right? Though employment is a huge gauge of economic growth, we can’t take it as an assurance of stability. Most of the countries are enjoying the best GDPs ever. The previous recessions did actually hit us when we were relishing all-time highs! Let us take a look at some of the major incidents that are happening across the world and will impact financial stability including India:

FINANCIAL POLICIES OF DEVELOPED NATIONS: