Agro-related exports aim to circumvent worst-case scenarios

The escalating conflict in the Middle East may multiply the impact on agro-forestry-fishery exports, causing a dent of tens of billions of US dollars in export revenues while simultaneously putting pressure on businesses due to soaring costs.

- By Oanh Nguyen

Industry players will focus on stronger raw material links and improving preservation and processing

The Department of Planning and Finance under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE), on March 11, released a scenario outlining the impact of the conflict between the US and Iran on agro-forestry-fishery exports in the short and medium term.

According to the department's predictions, if the conflict lasts about one month, Vietnam’s total agro-forestry-fishery export revenue could decrease by more than $1 billion. Of this, exports to the Middle East would decrease by approximately $182 million, Europe by about $770 million, and Africa by about $91 million.

If the conflict lasts three months, the estimated damage would be around $3-3.5 billion in total, and for an entire year, approximately $7-8 billion, equivalent to a 0.1-0.2 percentage point reduction in the industry’s growth rate.

Besides the losses in export value, processing and export businesses in this industry themselves are also facing numerous difficulties, such as soaring international freight rates, disrupted payment processes, and impacts on export markets.