Canada at the crossroads: Will PM Carney defend sovereignty or chase China's illusions?

Carney's China pivot undermines Canada's Indo-Pacific promise, risks sovereignty, and signals a retreat from values-based diplomacy in favour of short-term economic expedience.

- DEAN BAXENDALE

Last week, I argued that Prime Minister Mark Carney's tilt toward the Indo-Pacific could define his leadership legacy. From reviving the stalled CEPA (Canada-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership) talks with India to strengthening ties with ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) and Japan, Carney signaled that Canada might finally be ready to diversify trade based on democratic values and not expedient deals.

But this week, the story changed.

Carney's Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has not so quietly begun re-engaging Beijing, citing economic uncertainty and U.S. trade tensions as justification. And with Donald Trump back in the White House, promising widespread tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and other non-U.S.-made goods, Ottawa appears to be reaching once again for the illusion of China as economic savior.

This is not strategy. This is surrender, masquerading as pragmatism. And it is rooted in the same sunk fallacy cost that has long warped Canada's approach to authoritarian regimes and current diplomatic engagement.

A DANGEROUS PIVOT TO NOWHERE

China remains what it has always been: a coercive, authoritarian state that violates human rights, undermines the rules-based international order, and routinely weaponizes trade and diplomacy for political advantage. We are told in every engagement to shut up and put up, but this can no longer be our posture as a Middle-power. Former PM Trudeau and his key advisors from the Eurasia Group, also with a firm foot in the China camp, had so desperately wanted the climate and DEI agenda to be a cornerstone of that rise in status. But Xi, Modi, and Trump rejected these overtures outright as they worked to move their nations forward economically with a mandate to choose exceptionalism over mediocrity, Trade of virtue signaling.