Realistic and achievable?

Macroeconomicanalysis indicates thatthe Government of India continues to operate undersignificantfiscal constraints, with borrowingremaininganimportant component of public finance. Persistently highfiscaland revenue deficits, alongwith pressuresondebt andinterestservicing capacities, underline the challenges of maintaininglong-termfiscalsustainability. Theserisks, ifleftunaddressed, could potentially heighteninflationary pressures andfiscalvulnerability

- DILIP DATTA ARPITA SAHA

he Union Budget 2026-27 outlines a reform-oriented and investment-led growth strategy within a framework of fiscal consolidation. Presented on the auspicious occasion of Magha Purnima and the birth anniversary of Guru Ravidas, the Finance Minister highlighted that this is the first Budget prepared in Kartavya Bhawan and is guided by three foundational Kartavya.

The first Kartavya seeks to accelerate and sustain economic growth by enhancing productivity, competitiveness, and building resilience amid a volatile global environment. The second Kartavya focuses on fulfilling people’s aspirations by strengthening their capacities and enabling them to participate actively in India’s development process. The third Kartavya, aligned with the vision of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, underscores inclusive access to resources, opportunities, and basic amenities across regions, sectors, and social groups. Collectively, these principles reflect the government's stated commitment to high-growth, inclusive, and resilient economic development.

However, while budget speeches articulate policy intent and developmental priorities, the credibility of a budget ultimately hinges on whether its fiscal projections are realistic and achievable in light of historical trends and prevailing macroeconomic conditions. This raises a fundamental question: Are the figures presented in the Union Budget 2026-27 grounded in fiscal reality, or do they rest on optimistic assumptions that may not materialise? To examine this issue, trend and variance analyses were conducted using data from 2020-21 to 2025-26. These methods help identify structural patterns in revenue, expenditure, and deficits, and form the basis for deriving realistic projections for the current year. The estimates generated through this empirical exercise are then compared with the figures presented in the Union Budget.