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Upper-middle income, what now?

The Philippine Star

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July 05, 2026

We can’t pop the champagne just yet, even if we wanted to.

- IRIS GONZALES

You see, the World Bank did not certify that every Filipino had become better off. It did no such thing. It merely determined that, on average, the Philippines’ income per person had crossed a statistical threshold.

In short, crossing into upper-middle income status tells us something about the economy’s size and growth, and far less about whether ordinary Filipinos feel that their lives have improved.

Because, as most of us know, see and feel now — households and even businesses alike — times are far from easy.

In a way, this reclassification is a bit like graduating after nearly four decades in lower-middle income status.

We’ve donned our black toga, walked up the stage with our heads held high and finally, after years of hard work, received our much-awaited diploma. We are now officially graduates. It’s exciting and perhaps, exhilarating.

Yet, it’s also a lot like what it means to be a graduate in the real world — after receiving the diploma, the real work begins. There are more challenges, higher standards and greater responsibilities. You’re now expected to make it on your own, with less help, if any.

In the case of the Philippines, economists have warned that our access to concessional loans and preferential trade arrangements may no longer be as favorable as before.

Expect higher interest rates and stricter repayment terms.

The Marcos administration is set to borrow P2.68 trillion this year, P3.043 trillion in 2027 and P3.04 trillion in 2028, according to the latest Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing document.

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