Revolution 2.0: France's political future could be won or lost by bots and memes

The country's PM is set to lose power tomorrow, but what happens next is being shaped online, say analysts

- Kim Willsher

The fate of the French prime minister will be decided in the national assembly tomorrow, when François Bayrou and his centre-right government will almost certainly lose a confidence vote.

But the future of the country will be shaped elsewhere — online and on the streets. Over the summer, two opposing campaigns have emerged on social media to amplify the voices of ordinary voters. “C'est Nicolas qui paie” (Nicolas picks up the bill) began as a rightwing meme: a white-collar worker pictured with his head in his hands, virtual Nicolas despaired of paying high taxes to fund what he viewed as a nanny state.

The idea was that his taxes were going towards benefits for migrants and for pensioners to go on cruises while he was getting nothing back.

The meme became a movement. Conservative and far-right politicians have cautiously adopted Nicolas. Anxious not to alienate cruising pensioners — boomers are key supporters of Les Républicains and Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (National Rally) - they have leaned into the anti-immigration rhetoric in which the fictional Nicolas finances the benefits of the fictional "Karim".

Bruno Retailleau, France's right-wing interior minister, has said that Nicolas embodies the sense of injustice felt by part of the population. “It’s the France of honest people who pay their taxes, who work ... who don't make a fuss, not because they have nothing to say but because politicians often don’t care,” said Retailleau to a political thinktank last month.