Prediction markets enjoy their own big day as fans bet on wedding

What would she wear? Who'd be a bridesmaid? Swifties with a hunch and a dollar embrace a new form of fandom

- Marine Saint

Taylor Swift fans are accustomed to poring over her music, videos, social media posts and paparazzi sightings for clues about every element of her life.

But the global frenzy over the star’s nuptials to American footballer Travis Kelce this weekend raised the stakes.

Over the past few months, Swifties have flocked to prediction market sites, betting millions of dollars on everything from the date and location of the wedding to who might be a bridesmaid and who would design her dress.

Prediction markets allow punters to “trade on anything” - effectively betting on the likelihood of future events. The online platforms create markets, typically binary “yes or no” questions with a strict expiration date, and users buy and sell contracts related to everything from politics to sports in the hope of winning big. They became popular during the 2024 US election, when $3.5bn was wagered on the outcome of the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket, both billion-dollar startups, are pitching themselves to new audiences, particularly young women, by setting up markets dedicated to online speculation regarding the minutiae of big cultural events, from Oscar winners to Superbowl half-time performers.