HISTORY’S GHOST: RETURN OF SHOCK & AWE IN WEST ASIA

THE skies over West Asia are lit up by the twilight phenomena caused by missiles.

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The ground below is enveloped by an unmistakable sense of doom and gloom. The initial USIsrael campaign targeted political and military infrastructure in Iran. In retaliation, Iran fired ballistic missiles at every country in the region barring Oman, and targeted US military bases including the Central Command in Qatar that manages operations stretching from Egypt to Kazakhstan.The US believes it can decapitate the leadership of the Iranian regime—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the President and the Supreme Leader—and open the gates for another popular regime. The thesis is challenged by history as, typically, foreign intervention tends to rally the masses around the national flag. From Iraq to Egypt to Tunisia, such hope has been frequently flattened. That said, the fact that this Iranian regime has conducted brutal reprisals in the past few years could provide a motivation.

The possibility of escalation is writ large—the air spaces over Tran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar have been shut. Surgical strikes are sold as limited and precise for specific objectives. But assumptions are finally assumptions. The strikes and the failure of dialogue and diplomacy have normalised the choice of force as the first, not the last, resort. The strikes symbolise regime messaging from 30,000 ft—shock, awe and uncertainty—which is all too familiar in West Asia.