Bolsonaro joins a rogues' gallery of coup plotters held to account for their failed power grab

Jair Bolsonaro's conviction on Sept. 11, 2025, puts the former Brazilian president in a rogues' gallery of failed coup plotters to be held to account for their attempted power grab.

- BY JOHN JOSEPH CHIN Assistant Teaching Professor of Strategy and Technology, Carnegie Mellon University, and JOE WRIGHT Professor of Political Science, Penn State

Brazil’s Supreme Court found Bolsonaro guilty of being part of an armed criminal organization and other counts relating to a coup plot to overturn the ex-president’s 2022 election defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors had earlier argued that Bolsonaro and others discussed a scheme to assassinate Lula and incited a riot on Jan. 8, 2023, in hopes that Brazil's military would intervene and return Bolsonaro to power.

Four of the five justices on the panel voted to convict. Justice Cármen Lúcia, who was among the majority, said that the right-winger acted “with the purpose of eroding democracy and institutions.” Sentenced to 27 years and three months behind bars, Bolsonaro is expected to appeal the verdict.

As political scientists who have documented the fate of hundreds of coup leaders in the book “Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups D’état,” we have collected a dataset of every coup attempt since the end of World War II.

Bolsonaro is now one of thousands of coup plotters who have been brought to justice.

Not all coup plotters are held accountable for their actions. And even for those, like Bolsonaro, who are - it doesn’t necessarily mark the end of their political ambitions.

Coup and punishments

Plotting a coup is risky business. Some of those who attempt to seize or usurp power unconstitutionally are killed during their takeover bid, particularly when security forces loyal to the incumbent leader foil the attack. Christian Malanga, an exiled former army captain who led a violent attempt to seize power in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is one such example. He was killed in the ensuing shootout in May 2024.

And although they typically face punishment, the severity of consequences varies greatly; it often depends on whether the attempt is a self-coup, which is a power grab by an incumbent leader, or an attempt to oust a sitting government.