The weak link theory that could decide who wins out

While Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and co draw inevitable focus, there is an argument that this tournament will be won by the 11th name on the teamsheet, writes Richard Jolly

- Richard Jolly

By its very nature, the World Cup is destined to be described in terms of the best.

There is an argument, though, that it is determined by the least worst. Or, to put it another way, by who has the strongest weak link. Go by weak link theory and the tournament will not be decided by Lionel Messi or Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe; each can be called his team’s finest player. But the 11th name on the teamsheet might be the most important.

Especially because, in international football, there is an ever-present risk the worst player is worse than in the elite club sides. Without a transfer market, without the option of importing anyone, then, even in the diaspora World Cup, national team managers are picking from a limited talent pool.

It feels particularly pertinent now. Each of the contenders is flawed. It would be easy to construct a (hypothetically) World Cup-winning side from sections of different sides: perhaps with France’s forwards, Spain’s midfield, Portugal’s fullbacks, Brazil’s central defenders and Belgium’s goalkeeper. Take the alternative approach and some distinctly undistinguished theoretical sides could be assembled.

So the determining factor may be who camouflages their weaknesses the best or who is inconvenienced the least by relative shortcomings. It is a blueprint that has worked.