From control of key waterway to uranium stockpiles: four sticking points Trump has to overcome

If talks between Iran and the US reconvene within the next few days in Islamabad, Donald Trump will have two major political hurdles to overcome - first, showing that any deal he secures is better than the one signed by Barack Obama in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew in 2018 and, second, proving the deal is more favourable than the one that was on offer in Geneva in February before the war began.

- Patrick Wintour

If he can’t prove these he will have inflicted massive damage on the world economy when alternatives were available that were less costly. He will also have to show that Iran has made no permanent gain by taking control of shipping passing through the strait of Hormuz. These are the yardsticks on which his negotiating team will be keeping a close eye.

Comparisons between the 2015 joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) and whatever comes out of Islamabad cannot be exact since the nature of Iran’s nuclear programme has altered so much. Other issues, such as Iran’s missile programme or the stewardship of the strait of Hormuz, also now have greater prominence.

In one respect, any Islamabad deal will be better than the JCPOA since it will contain no sunset clauses. Overall the deal is intended to be for ever. But there are broadly four sticking points on which the Trump team will aim to claim progress over Obama.