China sets low growth target with new strategy on exports

China has set its target for GDP growth to a record low of 4.5-5%, the first time since 1991 that the figure has dropped below 5%, reflecting an economic strategy that is shifting away from export-led growth to a model that leaders hope will be more resilient to external shocks.

- Amy Hawkins

Li Qiang, China’s premier, announced the target for 2026 in the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s annual parliamentary gathering, which began yesterday.

Addressing the nearly 3,000 delegates gathered in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Li described 2025 as a “truly remarkable” year with “profound and complex developments both at home and abroad”, according to the text of the work report.

China also yesterday published a draft of the 15th five-year plan, an economic strategy for the period 2026-2030, which will be formally voted on next week. The plan includes chapters on boosting consumption and enhancing innovation.

The low GDP target was reflective of a shift to what Beijing is calling “high-quality growth” - that which is built on hi-tech industries and structural reform rather than the historic drivers of construction and exports.