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Joint exercise How a European deterrent might look if peace deal is reached
The Guardian Weekly
|February 21, 2025
European leaders have been asked by the US to provide security guarantees, including a military force, for Ukraine in the event that Donald Trump is able to strike a peace or ceasefire agreement with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
Though an end to the three-year war in Ukraine had been considered a way off, Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he was willing to talk to Russia has led to a scramble to work out how to respond.
What could a military force in Ukraine look like?
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the UK's Royal United Services Institute thinktank, argues there are several levels of force that could be deployed after a ceasefire in Ukraine. The first is a large land deterrence force, able in theory to fight, if Russia were to invade again - on the lines of the 100,000 to 150,000 troops sought by Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But with the US ruling out participating, personnel constraints mean it is far from clear Europe could supply such a number. Savill believes a more credible alternative would be a "tripwire" force of some "tens of thousands with European brigades on parts of the frontline".
This story is from the February 21, 2025 edition of The Guardian Weekly.
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