The biggest illusion is markets can't fall

In an exclusive conversation with The Free Press Journal's Business Editor-Consulting Sheryll D'Souza, Rahul Arora shared a sharp and honest view on India's markets and economy.

- Sheryll D'Souza

He spoke about rising volatility, weak demand, sectoral opportunities and investor behaviour. Rahul also warned against blind optimism in the markets, stressing that investors must focus on patience, discipline and smart asset allocation instead of chasing easy gains.

Markets have become highly volatile. What has changed?

Markets are far more difficult to predict now because both domestic and global risks have increased. Over the last decade, India has faced major disruptions like demonetisation, GST rollout, Covid, weak monsoons, the Russia-Ukraine war and now fresh geopolitical tensions. These repeated shocks have reduced the chances of long and stable bull runs.

Crude oil is another major concern. Rising oil prices increase freight, logistics and production costs. Many companies are still protected by existing inventories, but over time higher costs will hurt margins and profitability.

What are the biggest domestic concerns right now?

India's biggest challenge is weak structural demand. The rich are spending more on premium products, luxury cars, hotels and travel. But mass consumption remains weak. Consumer goods companies are struggling to deliver strong volume growth, which clearly shows demand is uneven.