El Nino threat over India

With below-normal rainfall forecast for 2026, experts fear disruptions to agriculture, groundwater recharge, hydropower generation and rural livelihoods

- Geetanjali Minhas

India is heading into the southwest monsoon season this year under the shadow of a rapidly strengthening El Nino, with meteorologists warning that the climate phenomenon could significantly disrupt rainfall patterns, intensify heat stress and place additional pressure on the country’s agriculture-dependent economy.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season, projecting seasonal precipitation at 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 870 mm, with an error margin of plus or minus four percent. The forecast places India on the threshold between below-normal and deficient rainfall categories, with IMD assigning a 60 percent probability to deficient rainfall and a 24 percent chance to below-normal rainfall.

The forecast comes amid growing evidence that El Nino conditions are developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the latest advisory from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 82 percent chance of El Nino emerging between May and July 2026, increasing to 96 percent during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.

For India, the timing of the evolving El Nino is particularly concerning. The year began under weak La Nina conditions before transitioning into an ENSO-neutral phase. Scientists expect a rapid shift into El Nino conditions during the second half of the year, creating atmospheric instability during the crucial monsoon months.