Iran: do massacres work?

After two weeks of silence about the mass slaughter of Iranian protesters on 8 and 9 January, the partial restoration of internet services in the country is allowing the first plausible estimates of how bad it was to reach the international media.

- Gwynne Dyer

(Gwynne Dyer)

It was very bad.The most plausible estimates run from 22 000 to 30 304 killings in two days, mainly based on reports of hospital admissions, mortuaries and mass grave sites before the internet was fully shut down. Indeed, many executions were carried out in hospitals, targeting protesters being treated there for shotgun wounds.

There are 92 million people in Iran, but the protests took place all over the country (400 cities and towns). The deaths were so numerous that almost everybody will know somebody who knows somebody else who had a friend or family member killed, injured or jailed this month. Iran is irreversibly changed by this.

Hitherto the regime had support from a large minority of Shia Muslims and many more people wanted to be left in peace. Henceforward, the regime will effectively be an occupation force that rules only by terror - but such regimes can last a long time if they are ruthless enough.