FOOD PRICES MAY REMAIN LOW IF IMD'S PREDICTION HOLDS TRUE

More than just good rainfall, a better spatial distribution of monsoon rain is important for crop production

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This year, India might receive an ‘above normal’ monsoon for the second year in a row, according to the first monsoon forecast for 2025 by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The country is likely to receive about 105% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall this year with an error margin of + 5%.

The LPA for southwest monsoon rainfall in the 1971-2020 period was 87 cm. If the rainfall received is less than 90% of the LPA, it is ‘deficient’. If it is between 90% and 95% of LPA, it is ‘below normal’. And if it is within the 96-104% range, it is ‘normal’. An LPA range between 105% and 110%, as is the forecast for 2025, is ‘above normal’. Rainfall is in ‘excess’ if it is above 110% of the LPA.

This is just the first forecast; an update will be issued in June. Past data shows that the IMD’s first monsoon forecasts have mostly been off the mark. The difference between the first forecast and the actual rainfall received has been within the + 5% range only eight times in more than two decades. However, adopting a new strategy for monsoon forecasting in 2021 seems to have improved the accuracy of IMD forecasts.