Ending Iran war quickly carries big risks for the U.S. and allies

Hopes for quickly reviving trade through the strait are dimming without U.S. naval escorts as Iran steps up attacks

- Jared Malsin, Summer Said & Shelby Holliday

Iranian officials say they will fight on, until an agreement is reached on Iran's terms, including America paving reparations.

President Trump —faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. But stopping the fighting carries big risks, even if Iran lets him.

If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war.

But leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. It would also sacrifice the security of America’s partners and allies, and possibly make another, more devastating, regional war likely.

Sensing impatience in Washington, Iranian officials say they will fight on, until an agreement is reached on Iran’s terms, including America paying reparations to Tehran. “We must strike the aggressor in the mouth so it learns a lesson and never again thinks of launching an aggression against our dear Iran,” Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday in a social-media post.

Oil held hostage

Iran is still believed to have plenty of short-range missiles and drones—not to mention naval mines—that it can use to choke off oil and natural-gas exports by making the Strait of Hormuz too risky for tankers. Around 20% of the world’s oil supplies transited the strait daily before the war started. Just on Wednesday, three vessels were hit in the area.