Rifts split wide open: Old conflicts take centre stage

During the election campaign, Donald Trump claimed that if he was in power, neither would Russia have attacked Ukraine nor would Hamas have attacked Israel.

- Prashant Jha

During the election campaign, Donald Trump claimed that if he was in power, neither would Russia have attacked Ukraine nor would Hamas have attacked Israel. He then declared that he would bring the war in Ukraine to an end, even before he took office on January 20. And while hedging on the timing of the end of the war in West Asia, he pledged to supporters of Israel that he stood firmly with Benjamin Netanyahu, told Arab-Americans that only he understood them, and sent out a message to Iran that his hardline policy would be back.

After his win, Trump, who has received more briefings, including directly from Joe Biden, and from European leaders in Paris and Florida, has reframed his messaging. On West Asia, he has sent a clear message to Hamas to release all the hostages by January 20 or warned there will be "all hell to pay". He hasn't publicly called on Israel to end its offensive, though some reports indicate that he does want the war wrapped up around the time he takes office to be able to take credit.

On Ukraine, from suggesting that he could end the war with just a phone call, Trump has woken up to the enormous human tragedy and acknowledged the strategic complexity in getting both sides to agree, claiming it is a more difficult situation than West Asia, while underlining the need for a deal urgently. And while reiterating his call to Europe to step up its security commitments to Nato, he hasn't indicated that he will leave the continent in the lurch to handle Ukraine all on its own without some kind of deal with Moscow.

To be sure, Trump isn't the only new variable in determining how the two wars evolve in 2025. There has been a change on the ground, especially in the final few months of 2024—a change that will play an equally important role in shaping the motivations and calculations of actors.