In Bengal, Assam polls, a test of Indian democracy

In the assembly elections in Assam and West Bengal, one of the key things will be how the electoral contest gets shaped by deepening religious polarisation and the Opposition parties’ concerns about the neutrality of institutions tasked with election management, oversight and regulation.

- Rahul Verma

For perspective, consider the following facts: In Assam, the 2023 delimitation exercise reportedly reduced the number of Muslim-dominated constituencies. And the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) has shrunk the electoral rolls by nine million in West Bengal, with a large number of deletions of Muslim electors.

According to Census 2011, Muslims account for about 34% of the electorate in Assam and 27% in West Bengal. Muslim voters are electorally pivotal, concentrated in specific constituencies that can decisively shape outcome. This is at the heart of the current phase of religious polarisation. Until the 2000s, religion was not the primary axis of mobilisation in either state. Assam’s politics revolved around language and subnational identity, while the Left in Bengal focused on building durable coalitions around class and redistribution. This is not to say that caste and religion did not matter, but they certainly didn’t take the political centre stage.

The Congress's overtures to soft Axomiya nationalism in the 2000s created the space for All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). In Bengal, the Trinamool's attempt to completely decimate the Left by making greater concessions to Muslims brought religion into sharp focus. These developments aided the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in both states.