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How analysts reacted to the India-US trade deal
Hindustan Times Chandigarh
|February 04, 2026
US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a major step to reset India-US ties with the announcement ofa trade deal on Monday.
Under the deal, the US agreed to reduce India’s effective tariff rate to18% from 50%, rolling back the reciprocal tariffs and penalties imposed earlier in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. Here's how analysts reacted to the announcement:
BARCLAYS
We estimate the effective, trade-weighted tariff rate on Indian exports will fall to 16.3% from 35.7% currently (assuming section 232 tariffs and present exemptions stay as is). We believe the most beaten-down sectors under the 50% tariff threat - gems and jewellery, textiles and apparels, leather and footwear, marine exports ~ are set to revive. We are in no rush to revise our FY26-27 real GDP growth forecast of 6.5%. We estimate lower tariffs will add ~30bp to headline GDP growth.
CITI RESEARCH
This story is from the February 04, 2026 edition of Hindustan Times Chandigarh.
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