Trump's Russian oil tariff threat doesn't faze traders, say analysts

Trump’s proposal to hit buyers with dg 256 to 508 tariff would be significant for oll markets If it turned into an order

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US President Donald Trump’s threat to hit buyers of Russian oil with tariffs had a limited impact on oil markets on Monday, as traders tried to determine how far the White House could go after Chinese and Indian oil importers.

Trump’s proposal to hit buyers with a 25t0 50l tariff would be significant for oil markets if it turned into an order, but analysts and traders questioned whether the threat was just Trump showing one of many cards in his talks with Russia.

“He changes his mind, so the market is struggling to keep up,” said John Kilduff, an energy consultant and former oil trader. “The market does not believe it any more until it is firm and a few weeks old.”

“As Trump yoyos in his decision-making, so do oil prices,” said David Gold man of Brokerage Navellier. “In the bigger picture, the correlation from the selloff appears to have stalled, and the price is moving sideways.” China and India are the major buyers of Russian crude, and then rerouting would be crucial in making any voluntary embargo package seriously hurt the world’s second-largest oil exporter.

In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India surpassed China to become the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude.

Russian oil comprised about 35t of India’s total crude imports in 2024, raising the stakes for what has become a crucial outlet for Moscow if Trump exerts pressure on New Delhi.