Russian oil loadings for India plunge

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However, fresh loadings headed for India from Russia declined sharply by 47% to 982,000 barrels per day this month from 1.86 million barrels in October.

This indicates the flows are set to decline noticeably in the near term, particularly through December-January. Any cargo after November 21 from Rosneft or Lukoil would carry significantly higher sanctions risk, analysts at Kpler noted.

“Based on current understanding, no Indian refiner other than Nayara’s already-sanctioned Vadinar facility is likely to take the risk of dealing with OFAC-designated entities, and buyers will need time to reconfigure contracts, routing, ownership structures, and payment channels,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler.

With crudelinked to Rosneft and Lukoil now effectively treated as a “sanctioned molecule” Indian refiners (aside from Nayara) are expected to pause direct purchases after November 21.

In a statement, a Reliance spokesperson said, “We have stopped importing Russian crude oil into our SEZ refinery with effect from November 20. Reliance supplies oil to Europe and other markets from its SEZ refinery in Jamnagar. “From December 1, all product exports from the SEZ refinery will be obtained from non-Russian crude oil,’ the firm said.