We don't want the left to become too weak

You predicted that the UDF would win more than 100 seats and that at least a dozen ministers in the Pinarayi Vijayan cabinet would lose.

- NIRMAL JOVIAL

Q What is the secret behind this accuracy?

It began with the Thrikkakara byelection. While everyone predicted defeat, I forecast a win by 20,000–25,000 votes. We won by nearly 25,000. I then correctly called the margins in Puthuppally, Palakkad and Nilambur. In the Lok Sabha polls, I predicted 17–19 seats; we got 18. In the local body elections, I said we would take four corporations—we did.

My baseline for the assembly elections was 85–96 seats, with a realistic target of 87–88, stretching to 90. But I had marked 15 exceptionally tight contests where I sensed a clear swing. Others dismissed it; I didn’t. Through years of reading ground signals— crowd responses, local reactions and deep data—I believed the trend would deliver those extra seats and push us past 100.

That's exactly what happened. Of those 15, we won 13.

This isn’t guesswork or prophecy. It’s electioneering—an art built on science. For decades, I’ve studied all 140 constituencies: past winners, margins, community equations, party bases and the “plus votes” a strong candidate can pull. We build teams, crunch every variable and turn it into a meticulous, evidence-based exercise. Not magic—method.

Q What is the signature feature of your election management?

My trademark style is building an ironclad organisation from the ground up. Everything begins at the booth level—strong booth committees and deep grassroots networks.

Next is flawless voter enrolment. While we design social engineering at the top, it must be executed perfectly on the ground. All internal issues and local disputes are resolved well before polling day. We also put in place robust systems to bring in outside votes.

None of this is possible without meticulous management and a strong, dependable team. No one can win elections alone.