The new Kaiser Wilhelm II

History is full of vain and venal leaders who wage wars, bankrupt nations to build magnificent castles or mint their faces on coins.

- ANITA PRATAP

They inflict disaster or become national jokes. Or both. An extreme and cautionary early 20th century example is Germany's Kaiser Wilhelm II. Despite his impeccable genealogy—grandson of Queen Victoria, cousin of King George V and Russian empress Alexandra—he wrecked royal bonds and international relations with insults, ultimatums, reckless decisions and bluff stratagems.

Donald Trump comes to mind. Several experts say Trump embodies the “madman theory”—making extreme threats to squeeze concessions. Associated with former US president Richard Nixon, the madman theory is a strategy outlined in Arthashastra. To be effective, coercive diplomacy or extreme brinkmanship must be used sparingly. Madman theory usually fails because the bully blinks, the victim resists tenaciously and if war erupts, then by definition the strategy has failed.

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