Sickle strategy

Marxists could become the principal alternative to the BJP in the next Bengal elections

- BY M.J. AKBAR

Ebarey Ram, Aagey Baar Baam.

This time, Ram. Next time, left. This slogan fluttered around the edges of yet another earthquake election in Bengal, but escaped notice, not least because the chatterati is so consumed by sequence that there is little mind space for consequence. It is never easy to trace the trajectory of the sun when it is still well below the horizon. The unknown story of the summer of 2026 is the strategy of Bengal's Marxists. Out of office and devoid of hope for the last 15 years, they did the unthinkable. They urged their small but resilient group of supporters to vote BJP and complete the thorough demolition of Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress. They could see the rise of the BJP; they wanted to ensure that these results would wreck the party which had removed them from Bengal's electoral map in 2011. It was a variation of Lenin's doctrine of strategic retreat: withdraw now to win tomorrow. The left cannot become the principal alternative to the BJP as long as the Trinamool remains relevant.

This calculus assumes that Banerjee's dramatic 2011 victory was a personal and perhaps freak triumph unsupported by institutional framework, and hence liable to crumble without the bolster effect of power. The Trinamool retained 80 seats in the 2026 Assembly but if defeat destroys its credibility, 80 can scatter as easily as eight. Voters who resent the BJP will need to regroup. Marxists believe that Bengal's demography is on their side. Muslims, who are effectively 35 per cent to 45 per cent of the electorate in districts east of the Hooghly river, could lead a return to a revived left. Even during the oblivion of the past 15 years, the left in Bengal has had a circa 10 per cent support base. Do the math, and the left has the potential to take on BJP in 2029 and 2031.

Marxists are confident that while Banerjee's war cry