NOW FOR A GREEN BHARAT ABHIYAAN

INCREASINGLY, THE PATHWAY TO ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE LIES IN DOMESTIC INITIATIVES IN INDIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES

- NAVROZ K. DUBASH

IN 2024, climate change continued its seemingly relentless march. Once the data are in, 2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record, beating 2023. This is not an outlier; the 10 warmest years recorded have all occurred since 2010. Yet greenhouse gas emissions, which cause climate change, are still rising, not falling. Emissions grew by more than 1 per cent during 2023 even as scientists say they need to peak and then decline by 25 per cent to 40 per cent by 2030.

What does this actually mean for peoples' lives? Those of us who live in South Asia will almost certainly experience more frequent extreme heat events, floods and droughts, with substantial health and economic effects. Because human productivity falls when it is hotter, the International Labour Organization projects that South Asia will face labour productivity losses of 5 per cent, equivalent to losing 43 million full-time jobs, by 2030. Climate change was almost certainly a big factor in the 2022 floods in Pakistan, which submerged a third of the country's land, affected some 33 million people and directly displaced 8 million. Climate change can not only set a country back years, it can also multiply the effect of existing threats. For example, higher temperatures can be associated with higher surface ozone levels, exacerbating air pollution. In multiple ways, climate change is making the task of building prosperity and security in India and South Asia ever harder.

This context of ever greater threat, particularly for the world's poor and most vulnerable, formed the backdrop for the annual climate negotiations, held this year in Baku, Azerbaijan. At Baku, the focus was on finance: would developed countries deliver on enhanced finance to support developing countries' transition to low-carbon futures and enable adaptation to inevitable warming? As is now typical, negotiations were fraught and came down to the wire.