Swiss Re SONAR 2025 Report

The Swiss Re SONAR 2025 report offers deep insight into emerging and evolving risks that could impact the global insurance landscape in the coming years.

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Introduction

Built on forward-looking research, expert insights, and scenario analyses, SONAR provides insurers, policymakers, and businesses with a proactive view of potential disruptions. The 2025 edition centers around six macro themes: geopolitical fragmentation, digital transformation, climate change intensification, societal shifts, bio-related risks, and financial market volatility.

1. The Nature of Emerging Risks

The SONAR report defines emerging risks as newly developing or changing risks that are difficult to quantify and may have a broad impact. These include slow-burn developments like shifts in societal norms or technology, as well as fast-developing threats like geopolitical instability or cyberattacks. The report emphasizes the need for early recognition and strategic adaptation, especially in the insurance sector, where risk foresight is critical for resilience.

2. Geopolitical Shifts and Regulatory Risk

A. Sanctions and Cross-Border Fragmentation

Geopolitical fragmentation continues to intensify as nations impose sanctions, restrict foreign investments, and reconfigure trade routes. This trend can disrupt global supply chains, limit access to insurance markets, and lead to regulatory divergence. Insurers operating internationally face increased compliance costs and uncertainty over coverage validity in sanctioned or politically unstable regions.

B. Nationalization of Insurance Markets

Emerging economies may begin to favor local reinsurers and insurers over foreign entities, leading to protectionist environments. This may limit global diversification for reinsurers and pressure them to adjust capital allocation and risk selection strategies.

3. Climate Risk and Environmental Transitions

A. Accelerated Climate Events and Secondary Perils