SUPERCYCLE SLUMP

What will it take for corn and soybean prices to climb again?

- Cassidy Walter

Corn and soybean prices have trended down for more than three years, squeezing margins. As preparations for the 2026 crop begin, are farmers looking at another tight year? Experts indicate most likely yes. What about the year after that and beyond? Maybe.

“If you look at corn yields since the invention of the hybrids, they’ve been basically going up by roughly two bushels per acre per year,” Iowa State University Extension Economist Chad Hart said. “Which means the corn market is constantly searching for more and more usage. And if it doesn’t find that usage right away, what tends to happen? Our stocks build, and prices fall.”

Stephen Nicholson, global sector strategist on grains and oilseeds for Rabobank, said corn and soybeans go through “supercycles” lasting 25–35 years. Following a supercycle, historically, a major new source of demand emerges and prices stairstep up to a new level and a new supercycle begins. He said the current supercycle began 17 years ago, following the advent of the Renewable Fuel Standard and a global demand boom.

Hart said throughout a supercycle, prices tend to drift lower until the next major source of demand is found.

Within a supercycle are “minicycles,” which Nicholson said tend to last 4–6 years. For the current minicycle, Nicholson said corn and soybean prices are in the trough and may begin to rise in 2027. But how would this unfold?

Supply, Demand, or Obscurity

Nicholson and Hart agree: The current price environment is the result of overproduction. Therefore, in order for prices to rise again, supply must decrease or demand must rise.

Nicholson said a shock to global supply, such as a drought or flood in a major producing country, such as the U.S. or Brazil, could provide a short-term boost to prices.