Everyone is talking about electric vehicles, but nobody can foresee how the markets for battery powered, fuel-cell and combustion-engine vehicles will develop. Which overall CO2 scenario will emerge from which mix of the various options between now and 2030? The Institute of Vehicle Concepts at the German Aerospace Center (DLR Stuttgart) has developed the simulation model “Vector 21”, which makes it possible to evaluate individual technologies in the overall context of a passenger car fleet and the technical, social and political framework conditions. It is thus possible to run through scenarios that can be modelled afresh when the parameters change or are updated. The DLR describes two particular scenarios in this article.
THE VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO MODEL VECTOR 21
The vehicle technology scenario model Vector 21, 1, of the Institute of Vehicle Concepts at the German Aerospace Center, Stuttgart, was developed to pave the way for evaluating individual technologies in the overall context of a passenger car fleet and its framework conditions. The algorithm calculates how individual technologies are used over time, supplanting or supplementing others in the process. Exogenous variables comprise customer behaviour (e.g. what is required of the vehicle), fuel costs, and environmental restrictions (e.g. CO2 emissions of the new car fleet). In each case the lowest-cost solution in terms of total cost of ownership is adopted. The model calculates how technologies and costs develop along with rising production totals, and illustrates cumulative indicators for evaluation.
STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL
In the Vector 21 model, the complexity of the passenger car market is abstracted into three model components:
:: Consumers: characterised as customer groups according to their behaviour;
:: Range of technology (concepts): characterised by the vehicle technologies on offer, their potential, their selling price and their running costs;
:: Exogenous influences: politics, characterised by taxes, subsidies, prohibitions and requirements (CO2 targets), energy price development, availability of infrastructure.
Linking the consumer aspect with the technological range of vehicles considered exclusively here represents a new aspect. Only the new car market is modelled.
DEMAND – THE MODEL FOR MARKET UPTAKE BY THE CUSTOMER
The model for market uptake abstracts customer behaviour by opting for or against buying a particular vehicle/ powertrain (technology range), and therefore generating a technology’s market share from the sum of all purchase decisions.
This story is from the January 2018 edition of Auto Tech Review.
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This story is from the January 2018 edition of Auto Tech Review.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
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