Collective denial

A decade on from the Paris Agreement, countries are planning more fossil fuel production than before, putting global climate ambitions at increasing risk

- PUJA DAS, DELHI

IN DECEMBER 2015, under the Paris Agreement, the world agreed to reduce emissions to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Stronger commitments were expected over time through a five-year review process. A decade later, the situation remains stark. Countries are in aggregate planning even more fossil fuel production than before, putting global climate ambitions at increasing risk.

Governments plan to produce more than double—120 per cent— the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, steering the world further from the Paris goals than the last assessment in 2023, states the “Production Gap Report 2025”, released on September 22, ahead of the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) to be held in Belém, Brazil, in November. This is the fifth edition of the UN-backed report, which tracks the misalignment between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The findings reveal a widening chasm between countries’ climate commitments and their energy strategies. Governments now plan higher levels of coal production through 2035, gas production through 2050, and oil well beyond mid-century compared to projections made just two years ago. Coal remains the most misaligned, with global output in 2030 projected to be 500 per cent higher than what is needed to stay on the 1.5°C pathway and 330 per cent above the 2°C benchmark. Oil and gas gaps are also stark, with planned 2030 production exceeding Paris-aligned limits by 31 per cent and 92 per cent. In other words, aggregate planned coal production for 2030 is 7 per cent higher than estimated in the 2023 Production Gap Report analysis; planned gas production is 5 per cent higher.