After 27 years, Welsh Labour's dominance may soon be over

Polls point to historic losses as internal divisions, voter fatigue and new rivals threaten Labour's grip on Wales, says Nye Davies

- MATTHEW HORWOOD

Several polls suggest Welsh Labour will trail behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in next month's Senedd election. Right, First Minister Eluned Morgan with Prime Minister Keir Starmer

(MATTHEW HORWOOD)

WELSH Labour is in unfamiliar territory. While winning elections in Wales had become routine since 1922, the upcoming Senedd election has thrown the party into uncharted waters, with the prospect of finishing a distant third.

So much is new about this election. The Senedd has been expanded from 60 to 96 members, alongside the introduction of a new electoral system which changes how members are elected, making this a contest like no other in the devolution era.

But it is not just the Senedd that is transforming.

More than a century of Labour dominance now appears under serious threat, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK emerging as beneficiaries of a potentially seismic realignment.

Polling suggests a stark outcome: around 12 seats for the party that has dominated Welsh political life, down from 29 at the last election. And that's despite the Senedd’s expansion.

In trying to breathe new life into the party, Welsh Labour claimed in late 2025 to be ushering in a new generation of Senedd members.

The upcoming election suggests otherwise, with more of the same and mostly familiar faces.

At the centre of it all, the party's leader, Eluned Morgan, is not just fighting a monumental battle for her party but for her own seat too.

The collapse of dominant parties can often appear sudden.

Just five years ago, Welsh Labour was celebrating one of its best Senedd election results.